Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of goods produced and services provided by a specific country over a set period of time, often a year. The metric is frequently used as a broad indicator of a given economy’s health, with an increasing GDP suggesting economic growth or prosperity and a decreasing GDP suggesting (surprise!) a stagnant or failing economy.
The United States has the world’s largest GDP, coming in at approximately $29 trillion, followed by China, Germany, Japan, and India. For reference, California’s $3.9 trillion GDP in 2023 (comprising 14% of national GDP) would put it behind Japan and ahead of India.
For North Carolina, which has seen economic growth for four straight years following a 2020 recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic, its 2025 GDP is set to continue this upward trajectory, with economic development wins across high-growth sectors like advanced manufacturing and energy.
According to UNC Charlotte Belk College of Business’ North Carolina Economic Forecast, the state’s real GDP — meaning the GDP adjusted for inflation — is predicted to increase its 2024 level by 2.3% in 2025, going from $637.6 billion to approximately $652.26 billion. In sticking with comparisons between the GDP of U.S. states and sovereign nations, North Carolina’s total GDP is comparable to that of Taiwan or Belgium.
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While the output within each of the 15 economic sectors constituting the state’s total GDP is expected to increase, UNC Charlotte’s forecast says the information sector’s projected growth of 4.9% was the highest. It was followed by construction at 3.1%, mining at 2.9%, hospitality and leisure services at 2.8%, transportation, warehousing, and utilities at 2.7%, and both nondurable goods manufacturing and business and professional services at 2.6%. All this new economic output in North Carolina also bodes well for its future job market; it’s projected to add 53,400 net jobs by the end of 2025 — a 1.1% increase from December 2024.
According to a report by the North Carolina Department of Commerce analyzing the state’s employment trends through 2032, service-providing industries, which accounted for almost 80% of the state’s total employment in 2022, are expected to add roughly 446,000 new jobs in the state by 2032.
This number is significantly more than the projected 36,718 jobs from goods-producing industries like construction and manufacturing over that same period.
Falling under service-providing industries, health care and social assistance is projected to add 101,586 new jobs by 2032 — the most in the state — followed by:
- 62,050 in professional scientific and technical services
- 61,292 in accommodation and food services
- 34,289 in educational services
- 32,165 in administrative and support, waste management, and remediation
- 26,922 in self-employed and unpaid family workers, all jobs
- 24,066 in finance and insurance
- 22,043 in transportation and warehousing
- 20,815 in retail trade
- 20,235 in construction (goods-producing industry)
- 19,332 in government
- 16,473 in manufacturing (goods-producing industry)
- 15,901 in arts, entertainment, and recreation
- 14,921 Other services (except government)
- 11,825 Wholesale trade
- 8,997 Management of companies and enterprises
- 7,959 Information
- 7,326 Real estate, rental, and leasing
- 1,333 Utilities
- 69 Mining, quarrying, and gas and oil extraction (goods-producing industry)
It is also important to note that according to the Annual U.S. Energy and Employment Report (USEER) North Carolina had the third fastest rate of energy job growth from 2022 to 2023 with 6.9%.
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Whether economic or weather-related, forecasts can be wildly inaccurate or eerily correct, but all rely on historical data or trends to make predictions about the future. All that to say, given the available and accessible data on North Carolina’s past and current GDP, the outlook for its 2025 GDP looks bright.