This might be the most mild fall we’ve experienced in human history. I don’t know where you live, but if you were on the East Coast on Oct. 22, it was 80 degrees. That’s not a typo; that’s how warm it was.
You’ve probably also seen the memes about the weather making the rounds on social media. While you may not be too upset about it (nobody is, by the way), this is a serious indicator of global warming and proof we have more work to do. However, there is hope on the horizon.
Photo Courtesy The Daily Dot
In October, London-based research firm DNV published its latest Energy Transition Outlook report. It claimed that emissions are set to halve by 2050, and 2024 might be the peak emissions output for the world. Increased awareness about sustainability and deployment of renewable energy and zero-emission vehicles are largely to thank for the decline.
Unfortunately, the planet is still likely to warm by 2.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, higher than the 1.5 degrees C threshold the Paris Climate Accords voted on in 2015. Even as solar and wind energy systems have plunged in cost and battery storage systems have become mainstream technologies, fossil fuel use is still very prominent. Coal has dropped in growth, but oil, natural gas, and gasoline are still in use.
“Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition,” Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV, said in a news release.
“Worryingly, our forecasted decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets.”
Photo Courtesy Manny Becerra
Nevertheless, Canary Media reported solar installations are up 80% since 2023. Electric vehicle (EV) purchases grew by 50%, and battery storage now allows solar energy to be delivered 24 hours a day and even dropped by 14% in cost, according to the DNV report.
DNV also pointed out China was “dominating” the global decarbonization effort in terms of the production and export of cleantech. The research says China delivered 58% of global solar technologies and 63% of new EV purchases in 2023.
However, China remains the biggest consumer of coal and emitter of carbon dioxide. According to Statista, the United States and China remain the world’s largest oil consumers, with the U.S. using about 19 million barrels per day and China using 16.6 million in 2023. The DNV report did indicate that the world’s “energy mix” is shifting from about an 80/20 mix toward fossil fuels to an equal split between fossil and non-fossil fuels by mid-century.
However, both countries made ample progress in renewable energy deployment.
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) published data showing that 85% of new electricity in 2023 came from renewables.
Solar power was the most prominent, with a 9.3% increase in Asia and an 8.6% increase in North America. Emissions in the U.S., Japan, Australia, and Europe have been declining for the last few years.
Policy like the Inflation Reduction Act is one of the reasons why renewables are becoming cheaper to deploy and invest in. The European Union has been pushing its European Industrial Deal to emulate the Inflation Reduction Act and reach the economic bloc’s green goals.
Photo Courtesy Andrew Roberts
Many countries and some U.S. states have also instituted EV mandates starting in 2035, requiring all dealerships to switch to zero-emission vehicle sales. Studies have shown EVs are indeed lowering emissions, which seems like a no-brainer.
Converting power plants to clean energy has been working well to increase commercial renewables. Rooftop solar is great for homes looking to decarbonize quickly and save money on electricity. Jobs are also growing in these areas, spurring tax revenue and revitalizing forgotten regions of the U.S. and rural Europe.
Eriksen said a “mismatch” exists between geopolitical and economic issues and advancing the green energy transition. However, “there is a compelling green dividend on offer which should give policymakers the courage to not only double down on renewable technologies but to tackle the expensive and difficult hard-to-electrify sectors with firm resolve,” he said.
There’s still a long way to go before climate scientists agree we’re in a safe zone. However, the goal now is to ensure things don’t get worse and the world increases its decarbonization activities. The “faster than we previously forecasted” growth in solar PV and batteries outlined in the DNV report seems to point to the world going in the right direction.
This incredibly mild autumn shows the world needs to act fast. Hopefully, we truly are past the highest rate of carbon emissions, and the future will be brighter (and cooler).
